Tierra West Appraisal Blog

The Inland Empire (including the Hemet-San Jacinto Valley) has recently made national news regarding the number of home foreclosures and bank REO's due to the sub-prime lending crisis. My question is it really a crisis, or not? I suppose if you are loosing your home it is indeed a crisis, but when you look at the big picture it looks to me more like a well over-due market correction that was simply inevitable. I mean really now, when home values double in 3 years or less, something is going to give! To think otherwise is simply foolishness. I for one, am willing to give up 20% of my home equity in 2007 for a net gain of 70 to 80% between 2003 and 2006. In the end, based upon historical performance through multiple cycles, real estate seems to gravitate to a 10% average annual yield; it must be a natural law or something. So, based on that seemingly simplistic yet recurring figure, our crummy home sale market will likey continue for at least several more years - Bush bailout or not. In fact, the inevitable adjustment may just be delayed a little longer. So, tighten your belts, the ride is not likely over yet. It will be interesting to see if we have learned anything from all this. I think during 2005 even my dog Kahuna was getting refinance advertisements in the mail (at least a new VISA card every other week).